How good a team’s fielding statistics and in particular amount of errors they give up, can play a significant role on the total amount of runs they give up in a particular game. For example, to start last season, the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals, the two eventual World Series finalists, led the MLB blogs league in errors, combining for 28 in the first five weeks of the season. As a result, the Cardinals went 20 – 11 – one in there first 32 games as an over bet on the totals line. Meanwhile, the Rangers went 17 – 13 – one in 31 games as an over bet. At the same time, despite losing the first six games of the season, if you had taken the Tampa Bay Rays to score fewer runs then the total, you would have had a record of 21 – 10 in the team’s first 31 games. In fact, at home, if you took the Rays to go under the total, you would have gone 15 and four against the line.

But how do you take advantage of defensive statistics on the betting line? Essentially, if you have a game featuring two bad defensive teams, such as the first month of the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals during the 2011 season, then you should take the over on the total line. Conversely, if the 2011 Rays met the 2012 Yankees in a game, then you would take the under since both are the leaders in team fielding through the first five weeks of each season. As well, if you take a game featuring a team with an exceptional defense verses a team with an awful defense, consider playing the run line, as you can turn a nice profit.

Looking at the MLB power rankings, we will quickly see, that the team to beat is not the defending World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals, but rather the runners up, the Texas Rangers. Through the first 17 games of the regular season, the Rangers are third best in offense, but ranked first in the American League in starting pitching and bullpen earned run average. In other words, the Rangers can score a lot of runs, and limit their opponent’s offense significantly. As a result, the Texas Rangers appear to have the best odds at a third consecutive run to the World Series in October.

But why is the bullpen so important to World Series odds? Essentially, as the playoffs progress, the games become comparable to a chess match, in that there are more individual matchups to take into consideration. A starting pitcher may not make it to the fifth inning. As a result, a team with a strong bullpen, may require a long man to log two or three innings, before the specialists, the set up man and closer all make an appearance in the game. By having a strong set up man and closer, a team stands a better chance at winning a World Series, then a team whose offense gets clutch hits on occasion.

Similar to a good goalie in the NHL, the closer is supposed to be your last line of defense before the opposing team scores the winning run. Some of the best teams in baseball, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, have been deemed as such for two reasons, excellent offenses in and hall of fame caliber closers. The Yankees historically have had mediocre starting pitching, but a strong offense and arguably the greatest closer anyone handicapping with Bodog has ever seen. However, as we mentioned earlier, even the Sandman, Mariano Rivera has appeared human this season.

Another closer with a lot of question marks is Detroit Tigers closer Jose Valverde. Last season, Valverde was the best closer in baseball, as he closed out 45 games in 45 opportunities. This season, he has already blown two saves. As a result, despite the addition of Prince Fielder to the Tigers lineup, many people, we included believe that if Valverde can’t get back on track, then the Tigers will once again miss out on the World Series. If that happens, you can be assured that Valverde will go from the best closer in baseball a year ago, to unemployed next year.

After creating one of the scariest rotations in the last decade, the Philadelphia Phillies once again lead the league in best odds to win the World Series. Opening up as a five to one favorite to win a title they haven’t laid claim to since 2008, the Phillies, from the rotation to the bullpen have the top pitching in the MLB. However, the team’s offense has lacked consistency the last couple of seasons, as eventual World Series Champions, the St. Louis Cardinals, in the 2011 playoffs, easily bested them. Add in the fact that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are both injured, and the five to one odds don’t look as impressive anymore.

Two teams in the American League tied for the best odds, are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and the Detroit Tigers. The two clubs won the sweepstakes for the services of Albert Pujols in LAAA and Prince Fielder in Detroit. As a result, each team’s odds are a dazzling six to one, as fans not only expect one of these teams to make the World Series, but also face off in the ALCS. On paper, the Tigers have the better overall offense, as they have Miguel Cabrera as well on their team. Conversely, the Angels have one of the scariest pitching rotations in the MLB, after also acquiring CJ Wilson in free agency.

For all intents and purposes, sharp handicappers, avoid the first 10 days of spring training like the plague. It is during this time, that the management groups sit down and make their initial cuts of camp. This time is also when the majority of rosters are filled with minor league talent, as well as some young players battling for open roster positions. With team’s fielding their second and third tier rosters, there isn’t really much money to be made. As a result fans handicapping the NBA trade deadline as well as MLB, will wait until the end of week two, as this is when the real rosters begin to form.

What you should be reading up on, is how many innings each manager has scheduled their starting pitchers to commit to as spring training moves on. For example, the Toronto Blue Jays will have Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow pitch and inning to two innings at the beginning of training camp. However, at the end of camp the duo may throw up to five innings as they look to fine tune their arsenals. From a batting perspective, look at every day starters, to receive more playing time as camp comes to an end.

The Toronto Blue Jays enter the 2012 season with expectations never being higher under GM Alex Anthopoulos. As of this writing, the young Blue Jays with their new uniforms, and revamped bullpen, own odds of 22 to one to win the American League pennant. By all accounts, this prediction may still be a year away, as the players continue to make adjustments to Manager John Farrell and his staff. However, for all intents and purposes, with the MLB introducing a second wild card spot in each league, the odds of the Blue Jays in the playoffs and World Series just got better. Also, the Blue Jays will need star slugger Jose Bautista, and the rest of the young offense, show critics and fans alike, that they are all ready to take the next step in their development. If the Blue Jays can have career years, and live up to their motto of “Hustle and Heart” they should go far in the playoffs.

Another team with surprisingly high value on the futures line is the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe took the MLB world by storm last season, as they led the American League Central from the start of the season until about the middle of July, before tailing off. With the youthful Indians playing above expectation, the lack of consistency from veterans brought in to help the team was overlooked. Yet, this season, like the Blue Jays at 22 to one odds, the Indians at 35 to one, indicates fans and bookies alike expect the team to contend for a playoff spot.

For all intents and purposes, the All Star Game signals the half way point of the MLB season, as all 30 teams, have played 81 of the 162 game season. The ASG also allows bettors and bookies the opportunity to see which teams will likely make the playoffs, and which are out of it. In other words, the ASG paints a clearer picture of the pretender from the contenders, after a confusing first half of the season. Post ASG is also, when you will see many sharp bettors bet the totals. Here is why.

Essentially, when looking for value on both the over and under for the total, you should look at the teams with the best offense and pitching. In many cases, you will see a team with excellent pitching, struggle to score runs, while a team with mediocre pitching may have an excellent offense. For example, the Philadelphia Phillies harbored the best pitching rotation in the MLB this past season, yet they had one of the worst offenses. As a result, the sharps would take the under in their games, because they knew that the pitching would limit the opposing teams offense.

For all intents and purposes, handicapping short and long term trends for every baseball team would take up way more time then you may have. Instead, you should pick four or five teams, and handicap their trends. What we like to do is look at how a team has faired short term, meaning during the current season, and long term, meaning a two to three year window prior to the current season. Most baseball teams stay together as core players for both fielders and catchers for this time frame. In other words, if a pitcher struggles in 2009, they may be able to bounce back in 2011 and the same can be said for NFL scores fielders.

Two betting systems that are used quite often in association with trends, are betting on favorites when the opposition left three or few runners on base in their previous game, as well as betting on any home underdog, when its starter lost its last start while the line was less than +150. In both systems, the bettor can see that a profit can be made. Essentially, in the first system looking at three of fewer runners on base in the previous game, the system has a record of 247 -134. Meanwhile, the home dog less than +150 coming off a starter’s loss, has a record of 81-78.

Sportsbooks don’t allow bettors to wager contingent on which pitcher starts the game, otherwise, bettors would always have their money redeemed, when the ace of a team is scratched from a start and the fifth starter takes their place. Instead, bookie software sites, allow two different wagers to be made on a baseball game. On the one hand, a bettor can make a qualifier bet, and then they can make an action bet. A qualifier bet is one in which the bet is contingent on the probable or listed starter starting the game. If the listed starter is scratched at the last minute such as five minutes before game time, the bet is canceled and the bettor’s money is refunded.

The starting pitcher has as much of an outcome on the game as a quarterback in a football game. Meaning to say, if your bet is listed with Burnett v Lee and you end up getting Burnett v Moyer making his debut after Tommy John Surgery, your wager is affected significantly. On the other hand, the action bet means that no matter whom the starting pitcher is, your bet is in effect. Meaning, if you bet on the Phillies because Lee was listed as the starter, but Moyer ended up starting, your bet is still in effect.

The runline similar to the puckline in the NHL provides the bettor with an incentive to wager on the underdog. Set at one and a half runs, the bettor wagers that the underdog will cover the run line by losing less than two runs. Here is an example.

Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-160)

New York Yankees – 1.5 (+140)

In this example, the Blue Jays need to lose the game by one run or win the game outright in order for their sports betting enthusiasts to win their wagers. However, because the Yankees have the burden of winning by two runs in order to win the wager, bettors taking the Blue Jays have to risk more to get back less. Conversely, the Yankees supporters have to risk less to get back more, because of the daunting odds.

When it comes to picking your spots on the MLB runline, you should look at several statistics before making your decision on which team to choose. Firstly, when the runline is set at minus one and a half runs, you should look at which teams are playing and who the starting pitchers are. For example, if it is the Philadelphia Phillies against the Baltimore Orioles, taking the Phillies to cover is a good idea since the Orioles are notoriously bad. Another important stat is that in the past five years 28 percent of the games have finished with the winning team only winning by a run. Meaning to say, it is difficult to take the runline for this reason.