For all intents and purposes, handicapping short and long term trends for every baseball team would take up way more time then you may have. Instead, you should pick four or five teams, and handicap their trends. What we like to do is look at how a team has faired short term, meaning during the current season, and long term, meaning a two to three year window prior to the current season. Most baseball teams stay together as core players for both fielders and catchers for this time frame. In other words, if a pitcher struggles in 2009, they may be able to bounce back in 2011 and the same can be said for NFL scores fielders.

Two betting systems that are used quite often in association with trends, are betting on favorites when the opposition left three or few runners on base in their previous game, as well as betting on any home underdog, when its starter lost its last start while the line was less than +150. In both systems, the bettor can see that a profit can be made. Essentially, in the first system looking at three of fewer runners on base in the previous game, the system has a record of 247 -134. Meanwhile, the home dog less than +150 coming off a starter’s loss, has a record of 81-78.

Sportsbooks don’t allow bettors to wager contingent on which pitcher starts the game, otherwise, bettors would always have their money redeemed, when the ace of a team is scratched from a start and the fifth starter takes their place. Instead, bookie software sites, allow two different wagers to be made on a baseball game. On the one hand, a bettor can make a qualifier bet, and then they can make an action bet. A qualifier bet is one in which the bet is contingent on the probable or listed starter starting the game. If the listed starter is scratched at the last minute such as five minutes before game time, the bet is canceled and the bettor’s money is refunded.

The starting pitcher has as much of an outcome on the game as a quarterback in a football game. Meaning to say, if your bet is listed with Burnett v Lee and you end up getting Burnett v Moyer making his debut after Tommy John Surgery, your wager is affected significantly. On the other hand, the action bet means that no matter whom the starting pitcher is, your bet is in effect. Meaning, if you bet on the Phillies because Lee was listed as the starter, but Moyer ended up starting, your bet is still in effect.

The runline similar to the puckline in the NHL provides the bettor with an incentive to wager on the underdog. Set at one and a half runs, the bettor wagers that the underdog will cover the run line by losing less than two runs. Here is an example.

Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-160)

New York Yankees – 1.5 (+140)

In this example, the Blue Jays need to lose the game by one run or win the game outright in order for their sports betting enthusiasts to win their wagers. However, because the Yankees have the burden of winning by two runs in order to win the wager, bettors taking the Blue Jays have to risk more to get back less. Conversely, the Yankees supporters have to risk less to get back more, because of the daunting odds.

When it comes to picking your spots on the MLB runline, you should look at several statistics before making your decision on which team to choose. Firstly, when the runline is set at minus one and a half runs, you should look at which teams are playing and who the starting pitchers are. For example, if it is the Philadelphia Phillies against the Baltimore Orioles, taking the Phillies to cover is a good idea since the Orioles are notoriously bad. Another important stat is that in the past five years 28 percent of the games have finished with the winning team only winning by a run. Meaning to say, it is difficult to take the runline for this reason.

MLB overnight lines are established each night after the final game on the West Coast has come to an end. For all intents and purposes, these lines are posted at 11 pm Eastern Time and revised in the morning. Most sharp bettors, we included, will search a variety of sportsbooks for overnight lines, as they will start off quite low. However, when the games take place the next evening, a bettor who took the overnight line, can turn a bigger profit then a person who bet five minutes prior to a game starting.

For example, in a game featuring the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, the Blue Jays were a – 105 favorite on the overnight line to beat the Orioles. By game time, the Blue Jays had their number increase to – 145. Yet, if you had took the Blue Jays at – 105 on the overnight line, you would have received triple the value by the end of the next game, if the Blue Jays had won. On the other hand, if the Blue Jays had lost, you would have only lost five bucks instead of $45 for the same game. Therefore taking the overnight lines can be more cost effective, then buying the line right at the last minute before game time.

The Miami Marlins are hoping to become the biggest fish in the sea this coming season. Miami was finally able to put pen to paper on a six year $100 million deal with oft-injured former New York Mets short stop Jose Reyes. As a result, questions are now beginning to circulate as to whether or not current short stop Hanley Ramirez will be moved either to third base or traded away all together, to land a pitcher.

If the Marlins can keep both Ramirez and sign a few members to the pitching staff that will turn the team around quickly. Speaking of the pitching staff, the Miami Marlins are in the hunt for a starter, after signing former San Diego Padre closer Heath Bell to a mammoth three-year $31 million contract. Just having Reyes and Bell alone could be the veteran moves the Marlins need to turn their franchise around.

Another team making major moves this week, in fact today, was sports betting juggernaut the Toronto Blue jays. The lone Canadian franchise in the MLB, shocked everyone, when they traded star pitching prospect Nestor Molina to the Chicago White Sox, for former Blue Jays short stop turned closer Sergio Santos. This trade came as a huge surprise, as for weeks, its been speculated that Toronto would either sign a free agent closer such as the aforementioned Heath Bell, or trade with the Oakland Athletics for their closer Andrew Bailey. Santos is an interesting commodity, as he’s only really had one full season in the MLB, which was this past one, where he had 30 saves in 36 opportunities.

Thanks to the new CBA, the offseason can go from being almost dead in the water to picking up steam again. Essentially, as the MLB and its players union worked tirelessly to establish a new CBA agreement, players and ownership alike waited before negotiating their own contracts. After Commissioner Bud Selig and the PA formally announced the new five-year CBA, many media outlets turned their attention back to the free agency pool.

Colleague John Heyman revealed his top 65 must have free agents this year and their projected salary. To say we are in the wrong profession would be an understatement, as sports betting MLB free agents are being paid a ridiculous amount of money. For example, Heyman expects both first base stars Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to receive up to $220 million each in salary with their new teams.

Pujols, the long time first baseman of the St. Louis Cardinals is looking for an average salary of $30 million a year, as he has basically carried St. Louis since he entered the league. With ownership not willing to budge, there is speculation that Pujols along with speedy New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes, will each bolt to Miami to play with the Marlins. The new ownership in Miami apparently wants to spend a lot of money and bring the best players to the team, to pack the new stadium.

On the pitching side of free agency, Heyman reported that salaries should be a little bit more reasonable. Neither top prize pitchers, CJ Wilson or Mark Beurhle will cost their new or old team more then $100 million.

The Toronto Blue Jays are already making a ton of headlines prior to the start of the winter meetings set for the beginning of December. As it stands right now, the Blue Jays are in the hunt for several marquee talents to shore up their offense and pitching. Rumors are currently circulating, that the Blue Jays may be interested in Hanley Ramirez from the Florida Marlins as a second baseman.

Ramirez had a horrid campaign in 2011 and now appears to be expendable. The Marlins, and new manager Ozzie Guillen are looking at signing former New York Mets short stop Jose Reyes to take over for Ramirez. If Reyes does sign with the Mets, look for Toronto to make an attempt to grab Ramirez from Florida.

Another interesting aspect of the Toronto Blue Jays offseason is that they are in the hunt for a top closer. Over the last two seasons, the Jays have led the price per head MLB in blown saves. Meaning to say, with three marquee closers on the market and several closers open for trades, the Jays should find their man before the start of spring training.

Some names that have come out in the Jays bullpen search include Jonathan Papelbon from Boston, Heath Bell from San Diego and Joe Nathan from Minnesota. In all likelihood, the Jays will be looking to trade for a closer. One name that keeps popping up is Andrew Bailey from Oakland. The Jays have traded the most with Oakland in the two teams history, so a deal could be worked out.

Texas has come to play this year, as they attempt to fully ratify the demons of a year ago. Last season, the big criticism surrounding the Rangers, was that their offense wasn’t deep enough, as once you got past Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Hamilton, the rest of the Rangers offense was silent during the 2010 MLB playoffs. With that in mind, the Rangers went out and acquired Mike Napoli through trade and Adrian Beltre as a free agent signings. As a result, the Rangers find themselves within a victory of the franchise’s first ever World Series.

On paper, despite the odds being in their favor, not very many people were willing to take Texas in a series over St. Louis. The way Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has been depicted by the media, one would believe that the 1920s New York Yankees could not defeat the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals. That being said, this series has come down to a battle of the bullpens, with Texas winning the battle so far.

St. Louis bullpen has carried the club all throughout the playoffs, but ultimately, they appear to be running out of gas. The main difference between Texas and St. Louis pitching staffs is that Texas starters have averaged five innings, while the Cardinals starters have managed to go only three innings, except for Chris Carpenter.

After making it to the dance but getting rejected by the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers open up the 2011 League Championship round, as eight to one favorites to win the World Series this year. After coming so close but then falling off, the Rangers are hungrier then ever to show that last season was not a fluke. Led by an offense that includes Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Napoli, the Rangers have looked dominant in back to back victories over the Tigers. By all accounts, if things continue the way they have gone, the Rangers could sweep.

Speaking of the Detroit Tigers, led by an impressive pitching staff, it appears as though the Tigers have run out of gas this past weekend. After cruising into the playoffs, the Tigers went through a grueling five game series with the New York Yankees before facing a well rested Texas Rangers squad. Detroit are 30 to one dogs to win the World Series.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a 20 to one favorite to win the World Series despite entering the playoffs as a Wild Card. St. Louis veteran lineup has shown that tenacity needed to win big games, as they stole the first round victory from the Philadelphia Phillies. Any time you take out the team known as the “best in history” you deserve good odds. The Cardinals opponents on the other hand, the Milwaukee Brewers are 100 to one dogs, because they haven’t been to the dance since 1982 and can only win at home.

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

Thursday, 8:00 PM ET

Both teams will have that extra day of rest on Wednesday before the series resumes on Thursday, but after rain in game one affected the starting rotations, neither team will be able to turn to their ace for the pay per head finale. It will be interesting to see if either manager decides to go to their big arms in a close contest, with New York sending Ivan Nova to the mound against Doug Fister for the Tigers. After struggling through the first three games of the series, Alex Rodriguez finally broke through with a couple of hits and an RBI, but the real offensive production came from the back of the Yankees’ order, as Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, and Russell Martin each had two hits and combined for five MLB runs. If New York is going to be able to pull out the finale at home, they will need more from their big guns at the top including Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Detroit managed just one run on four hits Tuesday, and could be in trouble early if the offense stalls again.

MLB Betting Pick: New York Yankees